The ISM Index

This is the most accurate indicator of an expanding or contracting economy. I have used it for several years and it has pointed us in the right direction even during the most difficult times.

If you are not familiar with it check it out.

APRIL 2010 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES

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PMI

Manufacturing continued to grow in April with the rate of growth accelerating as the PMI registered 60.4 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point when compared to March's reading of 59.6 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.

A PMI in excess of 42 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates growth for the 12th consecutive month in the overall economy, as well as expansion in the manufacturing sector for the ninth consecutive month. Ore stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through April (58.7 percent) corresponds to a 5.6 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for April is annualized, it corresponds to a 6.2 percent increase in real GDP annually."

THE LAST 12 MONTHS

Month	PMI		Month	PMI
Apr 2010	60.4		Oct 2009	55.2
Mar 2010	59.6		Sep 2009	52.4
Feb 2010	56.5		Aug 2009	52.8
Jan 2010	58.4		Jul 2009	49.1
Dec 2009	54.9		Jun 2009	45.3
Nov 2009	53.7		May 2009	43.2
Average for 12 months – 53.5 High – 60.4 Low – 43.2